‘Obama likely to win the US Presidential Election Battle’ predicts FMS Delhi Students

FMS Delhi

While some may associate them only with snazzy presentations and meaningless jargon, management students at the Faculty of Management Studies – University of Delhi (FMS-Delhi), have proved that there is more to an MBA than just the usual rigor of academics.

Completing a research paper under the tutelage of Dr. Pankaj Sinha, FMS Delhi final year students have predicted the results of the 2012 US Presidential Elections. The research also elaborated the impact of the expected outcome on various macroeconomic variables of U.S. economy post elections. These research papers have been circulated and published in international economics forums like IDEAS, New Economics Papers, Econpapers etc.

The University of Buckingham Press has published the Journal of Prediction Markets entitled “Prediction for the 2012 United States Presidential Election Using Multiple Regression Model”, research conducted by Dr Pankaj Sinha, Harsh Vardhan Singh and Aastha Sharma points to a victory of Obama in the presidential elections with a vote share of 51.8% to 54.2%.

“We discussed several factors while developing a prediction model for the election. As opposed to what several naysayers are stating, our research proves that in spite of the weight of the economic crisis upon him, Obama will not have difficulties in defeating Romney in the upcoming elections.” says Dr. Sinha while discussing the study.

Furthermore, students extended the study by applying various statistical techniques through their paper “Forecasting 2012 United States Presidential election using Factor Analysis, Logit and Probit Model” (Dr Pankaj Sinha, Varun Ranjan, Ashley Rose Thomas), also under review at “American Politics Research Journal”, to gain wider international acceptance for their study on the prediction.

In both the papers, the results show a remarkable deviation from the contemporary discussions that economic indicators like unemployment rate and healthcare spending play an important role in voting pattern. Instead, it is a combination of variables like Presidential job approval and contemporary scandals that influence the voting decision.

Weighing in on the debate continuing on the economic scenario in the US, another publication entitled “Economic scenario of United States of America before and after 2012 U.S. Presidential election” (Dr Pankaj Sinha, Anushree Singhal, Kriti Sondhi) uses statistical ARIMA modeling, to forecast the affect that both the candidates’ policies would have on the US economy in the upcoming years after the election.

Dr. Sinha adds, “The findings indicate that GDP is expected to grow at an average of about 2 percent and that a recession is not impending in 2013. Also going by the current policies, it is forecasted that U.S. exports and imports are expected to increase as the U.S. economy recovers”. The publication predicts that the Obama’s policies will inflate the budgetary deficit while Romney’s strategy would lower the same.

Links to papers:

  1. Title: Prediction for the 2012 United States Presidential Election Using Multiple Regression Model (Pankaj Sinha , Aastha Sharma and Harsh Vardhan Singh)
  2. Title: Forecasting 2012 United States Presidential election using Factor Analysis, Logit and Probit Models (Pankaj Sinha, Ashley Rose Thomas and Varun Ranjan)
  3. Title: Economic scenario of United States of America before and after 2012 U.S. Presidential Election (Pankaj Sinha, Anushree Singhal and Kriti Sondhi)

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